June
2008 Issue
Under the Microscope… and then some.
By Aidan McCaffery
Simba Makoni, the independent candidate who came third in Zimbabwe’s
presidential elections in March, has said he wants the upcoming
run off election between Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai
and incumbent president Robert Mugabe to be abandoned and replaced
by a unity government. Makoni fears the political violence that
has engulfed the country will continue unless the run off is
cancelled. His suggestions follow the formation of a coalition
government in Kenya on February 28th, itself the solution to
a similarly disputed presidential election, which also lead to
widespread violence. Oxymoron?
Zibabwe president Robert Mugabe
voting
Kenya’s power sharing agreement will see the incumbent
leader, Mwai Kibaki, retain his position with opposition leader
Raila Odinga accepting the newly created position of Prime Minister.
International observers noted the tallying system used in the
election was rigged to Kibaki’s advantage and did not meet
international or regional standards. Depressingly, the thing
to be learnt from Kenya’s election is that, for worse,
vote rigging appears to work. It will be interesting to see what
the long-term effects of this power sharing agreement will be.
As far as I can see, it is a boon for both incumbent political
leaders in Kenya and anyone who wants to run for their seat.
Three steps to retaining power in Kenya:
1) Rig the election.
2) When the results are contested, create a new position for
your opponent and
3) delegate some power to them.
The long term political effects of this are mind boggling. The
presidency has already been split into a presidency and a parliament.
In five years time, when Kibaki’s current term ends, all
he has to do to gain another five is print a few hundred thousand
surplus ballot papers, intimidate a few voters and when the results
are inevitably contested, delegate some more of his power to
a third, newly created position. What that could be is up to
him. Chancellor? Monarch? Chairman?
For the sake of this hypothesis, let’s say he creates a
monarchy. There is no need for it to end here. When Odinga’s
first term as Prime Minister comes to an end, and with the country
now containing presidential and parliamentary systems and a monarchy,
he could relinquish 25% of the army to his rival, give them half
of his powers and dispense with the need for this new position
to be voted out democratically, thus creating the fourth branch
of Kenya’s increasingly complicated political system – the
military dictatorship.
Candidate Dr. Simba Markoni of Kenya
Five years on, with the leaders of the third and fourth branches
of this ridiculous, seemingly impossible but ultimately historical
new system immune to democratic ejection, it is now the turn
of the president to once again face the electorate’s whim.
The ballots are back on the photocopier; the voters kick up a
bloody fuss and the next stage of the power sharing is agreed.
Welcome the fifth branch, lead by the Emperor. Obviously this
is problematic, as Kenya doesn’t have an empire, and empires
have been generally frowned upon since the end of WWII sixty-three
years ago. But if it gets one the fifth branch would be in charge
of it. Alternatively, the fifth could be lead by a Darth (that’s
a Star Wars reference; clearly I’m running out of types
of government).
Darth: new government title?
(Lucas Films)
So, when put under the microscope, my hypothetical vision of
Kenya’s emerging
type of government, the Semi-Presidential-Parliamentry-Military Dictatorship-Monarchy-Galactic
Emperor System, performs very much like cells splitting under a microscope. Power
is split, and split again, and split again, ensuring that the incumbents stay
in power and that anyone who makes a democratic run for government gets the best
of both worlds – their votes rigged and a guaranteed position of power.
If only Al Gore had thought of this in 2000, America would now have President
Bush and Prime Minister Gore, and King Kerry. And very soon General Obama or
McCain, guarding their 25% of power with fierce military force. And perhaps Darth
Hillary after that.
Ultimately, this spiralling form of power splitting ultimately ends up with everyone
in the country in power except one person, and when they run for the thirty-five
millionth leadership position, it will mean everyone in the country has equal
power, rendering all branches of government useless and creating the perfect
state of communism. Simba Makoni, take note. Zimbabwe’s political system
could be about to get very complicated, perfectly Communist, or both.
Perhaps it best to just stick with the run-off.
Send comments on Aidan’s column to a.f.mccaffery@gmail.com |
